How many foreign-born workers are needed? Three scenarios Print E-mail

In this section, we very briefly outline the methodology underlying the three scenarios. We begin with some notation:

Notation

DC (T) = Total elder care workers in year T

DCf (T) = Foreign-born elder care workers in year T

DCn (T) = Native-born elder care workers in year T

Pop65+(T) = Total population aged 65 and over in year T

= Elder care workers per person 65 and over in year T

= Foreign elder care workers per person 65 and over in year T

= Native elder care workers per person 65 and over in year T

We make the following assumption for all three scenarios: RC (T) = RC (0) = RC for all T. That is, the ratio of total elder care workers to the elderly population is assumed to be constant at its current level.

We can now identify the three scenarios of interest:

Low scenario: All required growth in elder-care workforce is met by native born.

DCf(T) = DCf(0) = DCf for all T.

DCn(T) = DC(T) – DCf(T) for all T.

Medium scenario: Constant foreign-born share of the elder-care workforce

RCf(T) = RCf(0) = RCf for all T.

DCf(T) = DC(T) × RCf for all T.

High scenario: All required growth in elder-care workforce is met by foreign born.

DCn(T) = DCn(0) = DCn for all T.

DCf(T) = DC(T) – DCn for all T.

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Last Updated on Tuesday, 01 December 2009 21:33