Based on available data, it seems reasonable to suppose that there will be a substantial increase in the market demand for elder care. As demand grows, the effects on the cost of care and the actual quantities of care provided through the market will depend on how the quantities of care demanded and supplied respond to increases in the price of care. One obvious way to ease the adjustment towards higher demand is to increase the available supply of foreign-born elder-care workers. The purpose of this section is to provide a baseline for considering how many foreign- and native-born care workers might be required. This baseline is based on the assumption that the ratio of elder care workers to older people remains at its current level. Calculating the number of native- and foreign-born elder-care workers under three scenarios: all increased demand is met by native workers; a constant foreign-born share in the elder-care workforce; and all increased demand is met by foreign-born workers reveals that a substantial increase in the number of elder care workers is required overall. Under the assumption no net additions of foreign-born workers (low scenario), the native-born workforce would have to rise by a factor of 3.1. Under the assumption of a constant foreign share (medium scenario), both the foreign- and native-born workforces would have to rise by a factor of 2.7. Finally, under the assumption of no net additions of native-born workers (high scenario), the foreign-born workforce would have to rise by a factor of 8.7.